BTC Looking for Fresh Momentum
Bitcoin prices remain tightly congested as we start the new week with the market opening down from last week’s highs. The market has been in consolidation/corrective mode recently with price grinding higher last week despite plenty of two-way action. Disappointment in response to the details of Trump’s recently announced US crypto reserve has left the market in no man’s land.
Russia-Ukraine
However, recent optimism around a potential Russia-Ukraine peace deal saw price pushing higher. As such, traders should keep an eye on incoming news flow around these negotiations. Trump and Putin are set to speak on the phone tomorrow and any positive headlines on the back of that conversation could help drive Bitcoin prices higher, amidst better risk sentiment generally.
FOMC & Recession Risks
Looking ahead this week, traders will also be keeping an eye on the FOMC on Wednesday. While no change in policy is expected, forward guidance will be closely monitored. If near-term easing expectations rise on the back of the meeting, this should help bolster risk sentiment, lifting Bitcoin prices accordingly. However, if the Fed is seen too concerns over tariff risks and the prospect of a recession, this could lead risk sentiment the other way, driving Bitcoin prices lower near-term. As such, there is plenty of two-way risk into the meeting. Additionally, if the Fed pushes back against near-term rate-cut calls, downplaying recession fears, this should drive a short-covering rally in USD, weighing on BTC and the broader risk complex.
Technical Views
BTC
The sell off in BTC has stalled for now into the 83,430 level and the 50% fib retracement level. While this area holds, a recovery higher can still be seen with 91,750 and the broken bull channel the key-near term barrier for bulls to overcome. Back above there, focus will shift back to YTD highs and a resumption of the rally. While we hold below that level, however, risks of a further drop lower are seen, with 74,655 the next support to watch.
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With 10 years of experience as a private trader and professional market analyst under his belt, James has carved out an impressive industry reputation. Able to both dissect and explain the key fundamental developments in the market, he communicates their importance and relevance in a succinct and straight forward manner.