The FTSE Finish Line: May 15 - 2025
Patrick Munnelly, Partner: Market Strategy, Tickmill Group.
The FTSE 100 in Britain showed minimal movement initially on Thursday before edging into modest positive territory, as investors weighed mixed corporate earnings alongside fresh UK GDP data. According to the latest ONS report, the UK economy expanded by 0.7% in the first quarter of 2025, surpassing the widely anticipated 0.6% growth rate and accelerating from the previous quarter’s 0.1% increase. This stronger-than-expected performance was driven by an unexpected 0.2% month-on-month rise in March output, marking the strongest quarterly growth since the first quarter of last year. However, Q1 growth is likely influenced by front-loaded activity in anticipation of rising domestic employment costs and US tariffs, so this momentum is unlikely to persist. Domestic growth is expected to ease into a more moderate pace starting from the second quarter. Businesses and consumers in the UK have demonstrated remarkable resilience. However, the current data does not yet fully reflect the risks associated with tax increases and tariffs that will take effect in April. A decline in economic activity in the second quarter seems almost inevitable. Additionally, the Bank of England's unexpectedly aggressive stance last week has shifted market expectations—rate cuts anticipated for June are now expected to occur quarterly rather than consecutively.
Single Stock Stories & Broker Updates:
JD Sports shares are up 3.5% at 93.18p, continuing a 10-session gain and reaching their highest since December 31. The rise follows reports of Dick's Sporting Goods nearing a deal to acquire Foot Locker. Out of 18 analysts, 9 recommend "buy" or higher, while 9 have a "hold," with a median price target of 95p. The stock had previously declined 6.53% this year up to Wednesday's close.
Shares of Sage Group fell 4.2% to 1,224.5 pence. North America revenue grew 11% in H1 2024, down from 13% growth. SGE maintains an annual organic revenue growth target of 9% or more and has extended its share buyback program by 200 million euros, set to end by August 6. J.P. Morgan notes that although the softer growth could affect share prices, EPS forecasts remain stable due to margin strength and buyback actions. Of 20 brokerages, 10 rate the stock "buy," 8 "hold," and 2 "sell," with a median price target of 1,387.50 pence. Shares are up approximately 0.5% year-to-date.
National Grid rises 2.3%, one of the top FTSE 100 gainers. FY adj operating profit exceeds estimates; strong performance expected in 2025/2026. Stock up ~9.16% including session gains.
Shares of Hikma Pharmaceuticals rose 5.9% to 2,056p, reaching their highest since March 11. The company set a five-year revenue target of £5 billion ($6.64 billion) for 2030, with expected revenue growth of 6-8% and core operating profit growth of 7-9% from 2024 to 2027. Brokerage Jefferies welcomed the target for clarity on the company's aspirations. HIK is up approximately 3% year-to-date.
Technical & Trade View
FTSE Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 8700
Primary support 8500
Below 8500 opens 8250
Primary objective 8900
Daily VWAP Bullish
Weekly VWAP Bullish
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!